What's the Chance?

Learning Resource Type

Learning Activity

Subject Area

Digital Literacy and Computer Science

Mathematics

Grade(s)

Overview

In this lesson, students will use an online spinner to explore theoretical and experimental probabilities. Students will also make predictions and support their reasoning before completing a probability experiment. Then students will design a spinner where all the sections are not uniform. To be able to compare results, the only variable changed is the size of the sections. Students will express probability results in both percent and fraction forms. Finally, students will reflect on a simulation of a given event.

What's the Chance Activity Page

Phase

During/Explore/Explain

Digital Literacy and Computer Science (2018) Grade(s): 7

DLCS18.7.27
Identify data needed to create a model or simulation of a given event.

Knowledge

Students know:

an event is comprised of a set of steps or processes that can be identified and then simulated.

Skills

Students are able to:

abstract the sequence of activities that make up an event.

Understanding

Students understand that:

dissecting the parts of an event can aid in understanding of and the simulation of the event.

Mathematics (2019) Grade(s): 7

MA19.7.14
Define and develop a probability model, including models that may or may not be uniform, where uniform models assign equal probability to all outcomes and non-uniform models involve events that are not equally likely.

Vocabulary

Probability model
Uniform model
non-uniform model
observed frequencies

Knowledge

Students know:

the probability of any single event can be expressed using terminology like impossible, unlikely, likely, or certain or as a number between 0 and 1, inclusive, with numbers closer to 1 indicating greater likelihood.
A probability model is a visual display of the sample space and each corresponding probability
probability models can be used to find the probability of events.
A uniform probability model has equally likely probabilities.
Sample space and related probabilities should be used to determine an appropriate probability model for a random circumstance.

Skills

Students are able to:

make predictions before conducting probability experiments, run trials of the experiment, and refine their conjectures as they run additional trials.
Collect data on the chance process that produces an event.
Use a developed probability model to find probabilities of events.
Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies
Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process.

Understanding

Students understand that:

long-run frequencies tend to approximate theoretical probability.
predictions are reasonable estimates and not exact measures.

Mathematics (2019) Grade(s): 7 - Grade 7 Accelerated

MA19.7A.30
Define and develop a probability model, including models that may or may not be uniform, where uniform models assign equal probability to all outcomes and non-uniform models involve events that are not equally likely.

Vocabulary

Probability model
Uniform model
non-uniform model
observed frequencies

Knowledge

Students know:

the probability of any single event can be expressed using terminology like impossible, unlikely, likely, or certain or as a number between 0 and 1, inclusive, with numbers closer to 1 indicating greater likelihood.
A probability model is a visual display of the sample space and each corresponding probability.
probability models can be used to find the probability of events.
A uniform probability model has equally likely probabilities.
Sample space and related probabilities should be used to determine an appropriate probability model for a random circumstance.

Skills

Students are able to:

make predictions before conducting probability experiments, run trials of the experiment, and refine their conjectures as they run additional trials.
Collect data on the chance process that produces an event.
Use a developed probability model to find probabilities of events.
Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies
Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process.

Understanding

Students understand that:

long-run frequencies tend to approximate theoretical probability.
predictions are reasonable estimates and not exact measures.

Learning Objectives

The student will use an online spinner to express experimental and theoretical probabilities in percent and fraction form.

The student will design spinner variations and predict possible outcomes.

The student will create a simulation of a given event by creating a model using an online tool.

Activity Details

Students will explore experimental and theoretical probabilities using the Illuminations adjustable spinner and record their results on the “What’s the Chance?” handout. In Part A of the activity, students are given direct instructions to explore experimental and theoretical probabilities properties using the adjustable spinner digital tool. All students should have the same answers. Part B of the activity allows students the opportunity to explore changing the size of the sections of the spinner. At this point, the teacher should conduct a Think-Pair-Share with the class. Ask the students how adjusting the size of the sections will change both the experimental and theoretical probabilities (Part B Question 2). Have the students compare their results with a partner and decide what they would like to share back with the class. Then students will complete the rest of Part B and record their results on their handout. A Think-Pair-Share could also be used with Part C where students are asked to compare their results from simulating the given event.

Assessment Strategies

Students will complete an exit ticket explaining if their predictions were accurate from the data they collected.

Assess students understanding by reviewing the "What's the Chance?" handout.

Observe students as they use the Illuminations Adjustable Spinner digital tool.

Variation Tips

If you do not have access to the Adjustable Spinner on the Illuminations website, you could have the students create spinners to conduct the activity.

Background / Preparation

Students need to understand the difference between experimental and theoretical probabilities.

Visit the website Adjustable Spinner to become familiar with how to use the spinner.

Students will need online access to the Adjustable Spinner found on Illuminations Website.

Copy the “What’s the Chance” student response page.

Illuminations Adjustable Spinner

https://www.nctm.org/Classroom-Resources/Illuminations/Interactives/Adjustable-…

Approved Date

2021-04-19

Owner (Author)

kdockery

What's the Chance?

Learning Resource Type

Subject Area

Grade(s)

Overview

Phase

DLCS18.7.27
Identify data needed to create a model or simulation of a given event.

UP:DLCS18.7.27

Knowledge

Skills

Understanding

MA19.7.14
Define and develop a probability model, including models that may or may not be uniform, where uniform models assign equal probability to all outcomes and non-uniform models involve events that are not equally likely.

UP:MA19.7.14

Vocabulary

Knowledge

Skills

Understanding

MA19.7A.30
Define and develop a probability model, including models that may or may not be uniform, where uniform models assign equal probability to all outcomes and non-uniform models involve events that are not equally likely.

UP:MA19.7A.30

Vocabulary

Knowledge

Skills

Understanding

Learning Objectives

Activity Details

Assessment Strategies

Variation Tips

Background / Preparation

Approved Date

Owner (Author)

What's the Chance?

Learning Resource Type

Subject Area

Grade(s)

Overview

Phase

DLCS18.7.27 Identify data needed to create a model or simulation of a given event.

Knowledge

Skills

Understanding

MA19.7.14 Define and develop a probability model, including models that may or may not be uniform, where uniform models assign equal probability to all outcomes and non-uniform models involve events that are not equally likely.

Vocabulary

Knowledge

Skills

Understanding

MA19.7A.30 Define and develop a probability model, including models that may or may not be uniform, where uniform models assign equal probability to all outcomes and non-uniform models involve events that are not equally likely.

Vocabulary

Knowledge

Skills

Understanding

Learning Objectives

Activity Details

Assessment Strategies

Variation Tips

Background / Preparation

URL (web address)

Approved Date

Owner (Author)

DLCS18.7.27
Identify data needed to create a model or simulation of a given event.

MA19.7.14
Define and develop a probability model, including models that may or may not be uniform, where uniform models assign equal probability to all outcomes and non-uniform models involve events that are not equally likely.

MA19.7A.30
Define and develop a probability model, including models that may or may not be uniform, where uniform models assign equal probability to all outcomes and non-uniform models involve events that are not equally likely.