MA19.7.14

Mathematics (2019) Grade(s): 7

MA19.7.14

Define and develop a probability model, including models that may or may not be uniform, where uniform models assign equal probability to all outcomes and non-uniform models involve events that are not equally likely.

Unpacked Content

Knowledge

Students know:
  • the probability of any single event can be expressed using terminology like impossible, unlikely, likely, or certain or as a number between 0 and 1, inclusive, with numbers closer to 1 indicating greater likelihood.
  • A probability model is a visual display of the sample space and each corresponding probability
  • probability models can be used to find the probability of events.
  • A uniform probability model has equally likely probabilities.
  • Sample space and related probabilities should be used to determine an appropriate probability model for a random circumstance.

Skills

Students are able to:
  • make predictions before conducting probability experiments, run trials of the experiment, and refine their conjectures as they run additional trials.
  • Collect data on the chance process that produces an event.
  • Use a developed probability model to find probabilities of events.
  • Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies
  • Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process.

Understanding

Students understand that:
  • long-run frequencies tend to approximate theoretical probability.
  • predictions are reasonable estimates and not exact measures.

Vocabulary

  • Probability model
  • Uniform model
  • non-uniform model
  • observed frequencies

Aligned Learning Resources

Plinko Probability
And the Winner Is...
The Power of Exponents
Exponents
Giantburgers
What's the Chance?
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