Historical Climate Analysis Activity

2. Observe the graph, what is the overall trend of the entire graph (use words like increase, decrease, glacial and inter-glacial in the answer)? POSSIBLE ANSWER: At the beginning of the graph the data shows an upward trend (with a slight decrease) from 900-1200. This could indicate an inter-glacial period in time. The time frame from 1200-1500 shows a warm period in the graph (with a slight dip noted). However the time frame also indicates that the temperatures were cooling from its highest around 1200.  This could indicate a glacial period is about to occur. In the years 1550-1700 the temperature decreases quickly indicating a glacial period (due to temperatures).  From 1700 to 1900 (when the graph stops) the temperature was indicating an increase in temperature. This indicates an inter-glacial period. In 1900 when the graph stops, the temperature was still lower at 3.97^oC than the highest at 4.12^oC in 1200.

3. Postulate a theory as to why the temperature during this time frame is so cold (REMEMBER you may have to do outside research to help finish this question)?  POSSIBLE ANSWER: The time frame from 900 to 1900 indicates two periods of time. First is the Medieval Warming Period and the Little Ice Age.  The time of the Little Ice Age 1150-1700 was, according to Global Temperatures (2500 BC to 2007 AD) from the chart, a very cold time on the planet. There were at least 90 major volcanic eruptions during this time with 4 in 1660 alone. The solar irradiation was decreased due to the amount of volcanic debris and the temperatures on the planet dropped. During the Little Ice Age, the Maunder Minimum, also known as the "prolonged sunspot minimum", (1645-1715) occurred. This time frame was when sunspots became exceedingly rare, as noted by solar observers of the time. The observers reported fewer than 50 sunspots. Modern amounts are around 40,000-50,000 for the same time frame. With volcanic activity increasing, sunspot activity decreasing and volcanic debris blocking solar radiation, the temperatures decreased in this area.

Reflection Question (Writing):

Support this statement: “To predict the climate of the future, one must know the climate of the past.” (Cite evidence) POSSIBLE ANSWER: In the Question #3 in the previous question set, the data reported came from the past. The current climate predictions, use past data collected as well as current data and then feed that data into climate model predictors to see the trends that might develop.  Climate changes how species interact with one another—and not just today or in the future, but also in the past. Scientists study trends from fossil records to understand how climate change impacted the past and to identify ways to predict how things may change in the future. Climate modeling occurs because we want to know how to respond to the changes that are occurring around us.  However, if the future is highly novel and difficult to model, then it’s also hard to predict.